Tuesday, 24 May 2016

Polypropylene Roller Coaster


In this blog post I present you an infographic about the polypropylene (PP) market. The reason for presenting this information is the growing surplus of PP material and its weak demand. These factors have led to a price drop that started in May 2015.

PP is, spoken for Europe, a multipurpose material for the automotive industry (ahead of PUR and PA). Furthermore, it is heavily used in electronics (ahead of PUR and PS) and is the second most important packaging material (right after PE and slightly ahead of PET). Finally, PP is also important in construction where it ranks behind PVC, PE, EPS and PUR in the fifth place.

I structured the infographic on the basis of 5 facts. These will give you a better feeling about the current situation and you can use this information for your further decision making in plastics industry:

  • Fact 1: Margin C3 and PP
  • Fact 2: The production
  • Fact 3: The manufacturers
  • Fact 4: The top-10 countries
  • Fact 5: The capacities

Have a look for yourself!

Enjoy and till next time.

Greetings,

Herwig

Literature: kiweb.de; polyglobe.net




Tuesday, 12 April 2016

Edi-Pasteuring approach – is this a feasible way of research & development in the plastics industry?



This blog post will show a R&D concept which in my point of view allows you a better categorization of your research approaches. For making it easier for companies to bring structure into the R&D departments, science has investigated the patterns of innovation processes. The results can be graphically displayed in the so called Pasteur’s Quadrant (Figure 1).


The Pasteur's Quadrant is a way of combining the basic and applied research approaches in the shape of a quadrant. The quadrants can be separated by a horizontal (=consideration of use) and a vertical line (=focus on fundamental understanding). In my point of view, in the last decade, the right side of the quadrant started melting together resulting in this particular expression of Edi-Pasteuring (Figure 2).



Figure 1: Schematic presentation of the Stokes Pasteurs quadrant adapted from [1].

Let’s jump one step back and lose some words about two of the quadrants: What is a Pasteur-type of research approach?
Put in simple words: it is a use-inspired research approach. It has a scientific basis (understanding of the physics behind the product) and considers the boundary conditions (physical limits) of the practical application as a result of the scientifically findings and developments. This quadrant was named after Louis Pasteur, who got famous with his foundations in microbiology. His approach of reducing death by preventing diseases is a good example of this category.

And what is an Edison-type of research approach? Thomas A. Edison, the founder of General Electric and first industrial R&D scientist, is famous for his 2 quotes:
“Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration."
And by this saying:
I have not failed 10,000 times. I have not failed once. I have succeeded in proving that those 10,000 ways will not work. When I have eliminated the ways that will not work, I will find the way that will work.  
This quote explains already his way of research: you need to have a try & error approach in your research activities to succeed.
And what is Edi-Pasteuring?
It is the melting of those two quadrants for providing a way in the new economy of plastics industry to keep on the top.  Important is therefore to ask:
  • Can this concept of Edi-Pasteuring work in plastics industry?
  • Or is the melting of those two approaches already a consequence of a successful business?
In my point of view it is already used and represented by e.g. rapid prototyping, which always uses a proof of concept on a small scale with evaluation. This allows you to showcase your product. In this phase it is important to consider the physics behind which allows it to work in a proper way and estimate the boundaries. Once this is done, a scale-up to real application development is the next phase. Both phases will have some try & error elements. The proof of concept phase is more oriented in the Pasteurs approach, where else the application and scale up phase is will be dominated by Edison approach. It has much more try & error elements, because you want to improve your product. You want to try out different polymeric materials and different insert configurations when you use injection or extrusion moulds.
In the Figure 2 you can find a graphical representation of my interpretation of the research approaches for plastics industry. The Figure 3 shows the same adaption but presented in a more technical way. The melting of the two quadrants lead to a bell distribution with overlapping phases.  It reminds me also somehow of a bi-modal distribution of e.g. a HDPE.


Figure 2: My interpretation of the research approaches for plastics industry using the Pasteurs quadrant from [1].


Figure 3: Edi-pasteuring as a technical representation: proof of concept phase (blue line) and scale up phase (orange).

How does it fit into the new economy?

To be valid in the new economy, it needs to be aligned with the zero to one way of creating products (see Peter Thiel) together with 3 significant words: TEMPO, TEMPO, and TEMPO. The right timing of your idea to be placed in the market is crucial. When Edi-Pasteuring is supporting this idea and allows your product to become an exponential exploding product which can create a monopoly (short: 0 to 1), then it will stand definitely a chance.

If not, it will be only a concept working from the second row and getting a load of “me-too” type of products. The management of big data and its use will influence this kind of approaches as well.

Maybe those quadrants will be replaced in the future through an Elon Musk type and Peter Thiel type of quadrant? We will see!

Hope you found this post interesting and should encourage you to check up on your current R&D environment. Maybe it needs a bit more of Edi-Pasteuring.


Greetings and till next time
Herwig

Literature:

[1] Ward Ooms, et.al: Research orientation and agglomeration: Can every region become a Silicon Valley? (2015)


Tuesday, 1 March 2016

Why the New Economy reshapes the plastics industry and what you need to know for helping reshaping it too!


First things first: What is the New Economy thinking?

As already stated in one my previous blog posts, the New Economy, also called the Next Economy, follows one central rule: “The winner takes it all” – the first person to come up with an innovative solution gets the biggest market share (around 70%). The New Economy will affect all markets and industries including the plastics industry. The Internet of Things and Industry 4.0 starts to take off at industrial scale. In the next 5 years, maybe even earlier, decisions will be made and the gap between successful and failed businesses will be significantly increased.

My suggestions on how to accelerate the New Economy thinking in the plastics industry:

Orientate on the key principles of 4 major personalities who have established complete new systems and turn around whole industries in the 21st century:


1) Elon Musk (Founder of Tesla & SpaceX): “It doesn’t matter whatever you are doing needs to be a great product or service”.
It doesn’t matter what the others offer, what you offer needs to be a lot better. For example, when you enter with your product or service an existing market place, you will need to stand out. Elan Musk states that you always have to jump into the customer role and ask: Why would I buy exactly this? You as a customer will buy the trusted brand unless there is a big difference compared to your trusted brand. It can be a price difference (much cheaper) or a value difference (significantly more added value).
There are often intellectual property discussions, which could come along with your product. Here, Elon Musk has an interesting view: All Our Patent Are Belong To You”
Technology leadership is not defined by patents, which history has repeatedly shown to be small protection indeed against a determined competitor, but rather by the ability of a company to attract and motivate the world’s most talented engineers. We believe that applying the open source philosophy to our patents will strengthen rather than diminish Tesla’s position in this regard (Elon Musk, June 12, 2014).

2) Peter Thiel (Founder PayPal, Investor): “Competition is for losers”.
Straight forward his view on how to build successful businesses in the New Economy. You need to go from zero to one and aim for a monopoly. Your business needs to differentiate itself so much from others that it is not even competing. Important to note is that a world of perfect competition is a world where all the capital gets competed away! A good example which demonstrates the zero to one philosophy is Google: they have no serious competition. Google differentiated itself so strongly from Yahoo and Microsoft Bing that it has been able to hold the monopoly of the digital search engines for the past 13 years, which results in an enormous cash flow.
Part of a successful zero-to-one strategy is to find the secret path. Most companies try to rush through the tiny doors where everybody tries to get through. Maybe, around the corner there is a secret gate which no one is using. Always strive for the secret path.

3) Tim Ferris (Inventor of the 4-hour workweek, 4-hour body and 4-hour chief): “DiSSS formula”.

In the New Economy, adapting your skills in a certain direction or learning new skills may elevate the way to do business. How to do that best? Follow the DiSSS formula to master everything, from learning a language to learn cooking. Tim explains this method by using LEGO blocks [1]:
Deconstruction: "What are the minimal learnable units, the LEGO blocks, I should starting with?"
Selection: "Which 20% of the blocks should I focus on for 80% or more of the outcome I want?"
Sequencing: "In what order should I learn the blocks?"
Stakes: "How do I set up stakes to create real consequences and guarantee I follow the program?"
Apart of DiSSS, from the 4-hour workweek book, I took away 2 other concepts, which can make your daily actions in business easier: The Pareto principle (80% output results from 20% inputs) and the Parkinson law (a task will increase importance and complexity in relation to the time allocated for its completion).
This can help you increasing your productivity by:
  1. Apply the Pareto principle to focus on important tasks and then
  2. The Parkinson law for shortening your time to important tasks.

4) Simon Sinek (Author of Start with Why): “Why? How? What?”.
Great leaders inspire people from the inside (Asking: Why?) to the outside (Asking: What?), which is represented by the so-called golden circle. The key for motivating people to take on action starts  by stating out why you do certain things and not by explaining the ‘what’ of a task or product. The ‘what’ is always a consequence of your ‘why’. Take as an example the way Nike and Apple communicate.  People follow you, not because they must. They follow you because they identify themselves with your product’s philosophy. This is explained by Simon with the law of diffusion of innovation.
-The first 2.5% of our population are our innovators.
-The next 13.5% of our population are our early adopters.
-The next 34% are our early majority, our late majority (34%) and our laggards (16%).
For having a mass-market success you need to achieve the tipping point between 15 and 18 % market penetration. Then, the market starts to tip and your idea will be accepted by the majority or simple put:
“People don't buy what you do; they buy why you do it and what you do simply proves what you believe. (Simon Sinek)”
The unwritten rules of the New Economy will change the way how we do business, how we innovate and how we live. The best way of understanding the ideas around the aforementioned people is to ob­serve your direct environment. You will find already influencing changes in most disciplines of plastics processing, production and developments.
Further remarks on this topic:
To follow the ideas of the New Economy, we have to start living in 2016 and not applying concepts and methods from e.g. 2008. You can observe that strongly in marketing: companies spend millions of their budget on printed advertisements, however, nowadays you need to directly hit the customer within seconds (online)!!
Silicon Valley in the U.S. has a clear vision and answers on how we will live in coming years. They will influence the world population over their business monopolies. Only few people will decide on how millions of people will live. This way of thinking is imperialistic dominated. The United States of America is good prepared for changes to come up, since most of these monopolies have originated there. The European Union has no answer to most of the questions which will come up in the next years.
Main areas of strong vision for the future are:
  • Our health: we will become older than 100 years. The medical treatment will shift from passive (going to doctor for treatment) to strongly preventive (measuring and recognizing upcoming diseases). Gen engineering will also be on the way.
  • The way of transportation will change - self-driving cars are finding their way in the market.
  • Artificial intelligence: the machines learn behaviors on their own and replace the human beings in certain jobs which can cause an increase in unemployment up to 40-50%.
All the aforementioned areas are chances for the plastics industry to deliver solutions. The most important assets of the New Economy are people with their ideas and how we spend our time. Time needs to be seen as the new currency. You need to be open for business opportunities 24/7. Share this post and till next time!
Greetings,







Tuesday, 26 January 2016

My Plastics Pioneers Series: LEGO®-founder Ole Kirk Christiansen & family

The idea of this blog post series is to present people who shaped and influenced our daily life with their capabilities in engineering, leadership, innovation, and in learning from their failures.


Let us start with a person behind a well-known toy: Ole Kirk Christiansen, the founder of LEGO® and a pioneer of the switch from wooden to plastic toys.
This post comprises two parts. The first part presents the LEGO® concepts and motivations, which can be useful to keep in mind for daily business, whereas the second part deals with the LEGO® technology from a more engineering point of view.
Part I: My favorite LEGO® concepts and views
Last year, I visited the home of LEGO® in Billund, Denmark. Here, the LEGO® funpark, R&D facilities and manufacturing are located.
I had the chance to have a look at the LEGO®’s idea house. Being inside this house allows you to make a time travel through the exciting history of LEGO®. Herein, several citations of the founder family can be found. They are placed all over the house together with example of toys from a specific decade. In this way, it is possible to get an idea of the views and concepts introduced by the founder family of LEGO®. Following, you can see some of these and how they can still be inspirational nowadays:

1) Godtfred’s LEGO® System of Play – approach:
LEGO® started by producing wooden toys. However, in 1954, Godtfred, one of the sons of Ole Kirk Christiansen, realized that little (plastic) bricks could have the potential to provide a system of playing, which would allow children to reversibly create their own world. 
Nowadays, 80% of the available bricks are standard types, whereas 20% are specialties. Standard bricks can cover over 200 different play sets. This has a huge beneficial influence in the mass production and designing of LEGO® bricks. Key message here: make your solution with system and simple (lean management approach).


2) Concept of the LEGO® founder family was based on 10 LEGO® main characteristics:

a. unlimited play possibilities
b. for girls, for boys
c. enthusiasm for all ages
d. play all year long
e. stimulating and harmonious play
f. endless hours of play
g. imagination, creativity, development
h. more LEGO, multiplied play value
i. always topical
j. safety and quality
 “The only toy that’s always right – because you made it” (LEGO®) - This is the result when creating products with those characteristics. It can also be a useful reminder when dealing with development of other polymer applications. You need to define boundary conditions and specifications for your product that your customer will start to love when using the product. Those boundary conditions should not only be taken into the industrial customer field, but they should also spread within your company and everybody needs to identify with them. Only in this way you will succeed with products and innovations.

3) “Our idea has been to create a toy that prepares the child for life-appealing to its imagination and developing the creative urge and joy of creation that is the driving force in every human being” Godtfred Kirk Christiansen, 1955


This thought states that your solution should add value in terms of creativity. And that we should never lose the creativity that we had as a child - “seeing it through a child’s eyes and mind” approach. When you ask a child: “Tell me 100 things you can do with a wooden stick”, she/he will possibly come up with 100 suggestions. As adults, we struggle already after the third suggestion. This needs to change. This kind of creativity we can stimulate by playing with LEGO®.

4) “LEGO stimulates creativity – it stimulates the ability to translate images of the mind to real expressions in the real world – in a way LEGO is a bridge between imagination and reality!” Godtfred Kirk Christiansen


This reflects also today’s possibilities in additive manufacturing and rapid prototyping, where images of our mind can become something touchable. Utilization of visualization technologies such as hologram projection allows designers and engineers to discuss items and ideas on a superior level. This consequently leads to a better understanding of the products and processes. When we understand those better we become more and more curios and want to know more.  This is one of the best driving forces for innovation!

Part II: LEGO® technology from a polymer engineering point of view:
The plastic
Polyolefins were initially applied for the injection moulding of the first LEGO® bricks as it can be seen in Figure 1, left.  Nevertheless, this simple design provided poor clutching ability between LEGO® bricks and, thus the construction of only simple toys. A new brick design was consequently needed. Designers eventually came up with a new brick geometry, the current one that we are all familiar with (Figure 1, right). This new geometry seemed promising, however, the polyolefine-based plastic at that time employed was not the right one. The low strength of this material resulted in the deformation of the bricks’ inner hollow cylinders purposefully designed to allow improved clutching. Several plastics were then checked and the winner was Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS). Since 1964, LEGO® elements are injection moulded in ABS.

Figure 1: Brick designs




The processing of the plastic
Figure 2: Windsor SH injection
moulding machine
The processing of the LEGO® plastic was mainly driven by Godfredt. Under the lead of Godfredt, the first injection moulding machine, a hand operating Windsor SH (Figure 2), was used to produce the first LEGO® plastic bricks. Back then, the machine operators estimated the cooling time by taking a puff of a cigar. The length of a puff was enough to cool down the brick in the mould.
 
Soon, engineers developed a new way of controlling the process of the moulded parts, the melt index control method also known as the LEGO®-process. For this, LEGO® established a quality system, which looks at the separation force between two bricks (clutching force). The quality testing system and the injection molding machine form a team being positioned next to each other. Once the clutching force is accessed, process parameters can be adjusted in order to attain the intended clutching force in the new moulded bricks.
Few parameters need to be set on the injection moulding machine and the production on one mould can be transferred to another machine, independently of material charge and machine.
What do you need for setting up the LEGO®-process on your machine?
  • Injection pressure
  • Injection time
  • Melt temperature
  • Melt index (estimated with the screw position in the injection moulding machine)
Important is that there is no separation between injection phase and the holding pressure phase. The injection time covers the injection and the holding pressure time. You just need to set the injection pressure. This results in the injection velocity. The flow resistance during the filling increases and the injection velocity decreases, because the set injection pressure will be not increased.
In this process, the melt index is defined as the time which the screw passes between two defined positions during injection. The melt index stays constant for achieving a constant quality. Is the index changing, then the injection pressure will be changed by the next cycle. In this way, an automatic quality control by adaptive changing of injection pressure can be implemented. Another advantage is that there is no switch over from the injection phase to the holding pressure phase. A disadvantage is that the injection pressure is as high as the holding pressure, which can lead to higher clamping forces. This can be a challenge when you want to make parts with thin walls where you want to have a fast injection (high injection pressures). In these cases, it is better to switch over short before complete filling to lower holding pressure.
Hope you liked the post! See you next time.
Greetings,
Herwig
 

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Literature: 

https://legohouse.com/da-dk/?gclid=CjwKCAjw5pShBhB_EiwAvmnNV26v70Duqww22HI2yQLo_MU9dfB6tY0_Qce1k1dxqJBvzHSYanVmthoCwCsQAvD_BwE