Polymers and the Lindy Effect (Rule of Thumb Plastic Selection and Part Design)

Hello and welcome to a new Rule of Thumb post with focus on the Lindy Effect.

What is the Lindy Effect?

The Lindy Effect, when applied to polymers, suggests that the longer a polymer material or its application has been in use, the longer it is likely to continue to be used in the future. This effect highlights the idea that longevity in the face of time and competition implies robustness and adaptability, making older technologies or materials potentially more durable and relevant than newer, less tested alternatives. 

Examples - Polymers and the Lindy Effect

1. Established Polymer Applications: Consider the long-standing use of polyethylene (PE) in packaging or polyvinyl chloride (PVC) in construction as flame retardant flooring material as well as window frame polymer. The Lindy Effect would imply that these established uses are likely to continue for many years to come, as they have already demonstrated their longevity and reliability (Figure 1). 

Figure 1: Polymers and the Lindy Effect - Examples PVC and PE.

2. Mature Polymer Materials: Similarly, materials like natural rubber or certain types of thermosetting plastics, which have been used for a considerable time, are likely to remain relevant due to their proven track record. 

In essence, the Lindy Effect in the context of polymers suggests that the longer a polymer or its application has been around, the more likely it is to persist into the future. This is because its longevity indicates a degree of robustness and adaptability that makes it a reliable choice in the face of new innovations and changing needs. This brings me to one of my top 10 rules for plastic part design and selection (Rule Nr. 10): Past performance can be guarantee of future results. It can pay of to revisit past application designs to understand what worked in the past (materials selection and design).

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Thanks for reading & #findoutaboutplastics

Greetings, 

Herwig Juster

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Literature:

[1]  Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2012). Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder